Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
